Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
